Interesting time, part II

May 1. Of course, the Maoists are doing their annual "show of power" activities: red shirts, nylon red flags, raised fists, thinly veiled threats.

Watching Prachanda's speech, I was struck by the dissonance between his party's massive, impressive ability to mobilize--coerce, force, cajole--such a large number of people into following the party directive, and the utter, utter lack of anything of substance in his speech. It seemed to me that Madhav Kumar Nepal held the cards close to his vest, late into the day, not revealing whether he had given in to the demands being made by the Maoists, or if he had buckled under the pressure and resigned.

Prachanda, in his speech, tried to dig in for the long haul, to prepare his cadres to stay in Kathmandu on borrowed [extorted] space and rations. I think he did one thing particularly sinister: he sliced Kathmandu's demography into those who should most readily help him--the ethnic, downtrodden Newars. This recognizes the fact that most of Kathmandu's population is not born here, is not Newar, and is not sympathetic to the large red hordes at their gates.

MKN, on the other hand, went through a lengthy, apologetic speech that hints at his own capacity for authoritarianism, and refused to bow before Maoist pressure. The government's side made a huuuuge mistake by doing the following:

1] Controlling access to the event where the PM made the speech. This was evident from the fact that all TV channels showed the same streaming video, with the NTV logo prominent.

2] Being flanked by choice meat: BK Gachhadhar and Sujata Koirala aren't democracy-friendly branding.

3] Insisting that it is the duty of the security forces and bureaucrats to ensure smooth running of the state no matter how grave the threat. This is attitude of a dictator firmly digging in his heels, preparing for the long haul.

Tomorrow is bound to be less peaceful than today, regardless of Maoist rhetoric. After all, a stalemate doesn't lead to victory. Not both forces can be perpetually restrained. It is one thing to control a May 1 rally, another to control a demonstration that will force closures of industries, markets, schools. The YCL is bound to begin by burning a vehicle or two, which will then force the state's security forces to retaliate by use of force, which will then bring into play the petrol bombs and socket bombs and explosive gels being brought into the city.

When will the first pillar of smoke rise tomorrow?